The population forecasting method that is based on the assumption that the percentage increase in population from one decade to the other decade remains constant is called the ______ method.

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DFCCIL Executive Civil 2018 Official Paper

Option 1 : geometrical increase

CT 1: Current Affairs (Government Policies and Schemes)

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**Explanation:**

**Geometric increase method **

- The geometric increase method is also known as the
**logarithmic growth method or exponential growth method.** - In this method, the
**percentage increase in population**from decade to decade is**assumed to remain constant.** - Since this method
**gives higher values**and hence should be applied for a**new industrial town at the beginning of development**for only a few decades. - Hence
**cities which are developing really fast**generally follow this trend. - For Cities that are already developed, their population is already reached near saturation, hence their population does not grow at a rapid rate.
- The population at the end of nth decade ‘Pn’ can be estimated as:

\({P_n} = P \times \;{\left( {1 + \frac{{{I_G}}}{{100}}} \right)^n} = P \times {e^{r \times \left( {{t_n} - {t_o}} \right)}}\)

Where, IG = geometric mean (%) P = Present population, n = no. of decades.